FOMC minutes coming up next. What to look for
The minutes of the Sept 21-22 meeting are coming up next
The Fed minutes aren’t released in a lock up any longer so the report will be put up on the Fed website at the top of the hour and then the free-for-all begins.
To recap, the key line in the FOMC statement was:
“If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted.”
Expect to see evidence of a lively debate on inflation, with some clear worries that transitory factors and supply chain issues will persist.
Another focus will be any talk of the pace of the taper. Will it be $15B a month? Or $20B a meeting? Or something less defined.
In terms of the path of rates, the Fed funds market is now pricing in an 80% chance of a hike next September. I don’t think we’ll hear any real rate hike talk but chatter about ‘flexibility’ will be a factor.